Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 1.275411e-01 0.156531 0.188076 0.224659 0.265631 0.309834 0.360857
2025-03-30 8.649522e-02 0.123706 0.167987 0.223341 0.289499 0.364938 0.456367
2025-04-06 5.969718e-02 0.100254 0.153017 0.223664 0.312928 0.419368 0.553301
2025-04-13 4.294203e-02 0.084988 0.144616 0.229522 0.341945 0.480903 0.660901
2025-04-20 3.156026e-02 0.073931 0.139266 0.237605 0.373139 0.545683 0.774423
2025-04-27 2.293927e-02 0.064388 0.133949 0.244269 0.401895 0.607786 0.886141
2025-05-04 1.528777e-02 0.053552 0.124299 0.242924 0.418737 0.654261 0.978748
2025-05-11 1.066806e-02 0.046686 0.119566 0.247809 0.443742 0.711622 1.086230
2025-05-18 6.625435e-03 0.038746 0.111127 0.245498 0.457539 0.753627 1.174009
2025-05-25 3.197222e-03 0.029272 0.097301 0.232307 0.453689 0.770435 1.227922
2025-06-01 1.817794e-03 0.025033 0.092980 0.234453 0.472645 0.819040 1.325023
2025-06-08 7.427276e-04 0.019799 0.084870 0.228632 0.478377 0.848495 1.396128
2025-06-15 4.321517e-04 0.018549 0.086284 0.240880 0.513941 0.922602 1.531273
2025-06-22 1.236193e-04 0.015310 0.081532 0.240713 0.529176 0.967367 1.626534
2025-06-29 1.697070e-05 0.012736 0.077690 0.241768 0.546228 1.015002 1.726467
2025-07-06 3.581576e-07 0.011259 0.076660 0.248359 0.572681 1.077048 1.847533
2025-07-13 NaN 0.010222 0.076717 0.257126 0.602996 1.145310 1.978178
2025-07-20 NaN 0.009114 0.076106 0.264297 0.630658 1.209942 2.104395
2025-07-27 NaN 0.007300 0.071911 0.262970 0.643178 1.251526 2.197979
2025-08-03 NaN 0.006325 0.070673 0.268169 0.667317 1.311250 2.318289
2025-08-10 NaN 0.004902 0.066440 0.265765 0.677477 1.349302 2.407507
2025-08-17 NaN 0.003064 0.058033 0.251879 0.665669 1.352398 2.445469
2025-08-24 NaN 0.002446 0.056151 0.254152 0.683865 1.402999 2.553526